UAE GDP: size, growth and how the economy is doing

The UAE’s real GDP was AED 961.9 billion at constant prices in the first half of 2026, 0.4% more than a year earlier, according to the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Centre (FCSC). Growth slowed from 6.2% in 2025 as output fell 2.1% in the second quarter, when regional disruption hit tourism, transport, trade and oil production. For the full year 2025, FCSC put real GDP at AED 1.9 trillion.

Key takeaways

• Real GDP reached AED 961.9 billion in the first half of 2026, up 0.4% on a year earlier (FCSC, preliminary).
• The second quarter of 2026 shrank 2.1% year on year, after 3.0% growth in the first quarter.
• Real GDP grew 4.3% in 2023, 6.6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025 on FCSC's revised figures, reaching AED 1.9 trillion in 2025.
• Financial and insurance activities grew 14.8% in the first half of 2026, the highest rate among the major activities.
• The Central Bank projects real growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027 as oil output rises.

On this page 10 sections

How big is the UAE economy?

The latest official measure covers six months, not a full year: FCSC valued what the UAE produced from January to June 2026 at just under AED 1 trillion in constant prices.

UAE real GDP, first half of 2026

AED 961.9 billion; +0.4% (non-oil +1.8%)

FCSC reported on 9 October 2026 that UAE real GDP reached AED 961.9 billion at constant prices in the first half of 2026, up 0.4% on the same period of 2025; non-oil GDP grew 1.8%, raising the non-oil share of the economy to 79.2% from 78.1%.

For the last full year, FCSC’s release of 30 May 2026 put real GDP for 2025 at AED 1.9 trillion, 6.2% more than in 2024. The release gives the level only to the nearest AED 0.1 trillion.

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of all goods and services produced inside a country in a given period, counting each stage of production once so that the same output is not added twice. FCSC, the federal statistics body, publishes it for the UAE as a whole. Abu Dhabi and Dubai also publish GDP for their own emirates, as described further down.

Real and nominal GDP

Real GDP values each period’s output at the prices of a fixed base year, so it rises only when more is produced. Nominal GDP values output at the prices of the period itself, so it rises when volumes grow, when prices rise, or both. The national growth rates that FCSC and the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) quote, and that this page uses, are real growth rates.

Worked example

Real and nominal growth for one workshop

The quantities and prices are illustrations.

1. Year 1: the workshop sells 1,000 items at AED 100 each. Output at current prices is 1,000 × AED 100 = AED 100,000.
2. Year 2: it sells 1,030 items and the price rises to AED 102. Output at current prices is 1,030 × AED 102 = AED 105,060, which is 5.06% more than year 1. This is nominal growth.
3. Valued at year 1 prices, year 2 output is 1,030 × AED 100 = AED 103,000, which is 3.0% more than year 1. This is real growth.
4. The gap of about 2 percentage points between the two reflects the 2% price rise: AED 105,060 ÷ AED 103,000 = 1.02.

Nominal growth is 5.06% and real growth 3.0%: only the real figure shows how much more was produced.

The same logic applies to a whole economy. Real GDP is the better measure of whether output is growing; nominal GDP is the one usually used to compare the size of economies or to express tax revenue and debt as a share of output. International databases often quote GDP in US dollars, and because the dirham is pegged to the dollar, converting a dirham figure is a single division at a fixed rate, explained in the guide to the dirham peg.

GDP per capita

GDP per capita is GDP divided by the population: the average output per resident. It measures output, not what residents earn or are paid: part of GDP is company profits, and part is income that goes to owners and lenders abroad. It is normally calculated from nominal GDP and converted to US dollars for international comparisons. Because both the GDP figure and the population estimate are revised over time, per capita figures from different sources or years are often not comparable.

UAE GDP growth by year

The economy grew in each of the last three full years, fastest in 2024, according to FCSC’s revised figures as tabulated by the CBUAE.

Real GDP growth, 2023 to 2025

2023: 4.3%; 2024: 6.6%; 2025: 6.2%

UAE real GDP grew 4.3% in 2023, 6.6% in 2024 and 6.2% in 2025; non-hydrocarbon GDP grew 7.0%, 8.6% and 6.8% and hydrocarbon GDP -3.0%, 0.6% and 4.3% in the same years (FCSC data).

Hydrocarbon GDP covers oil and gas production and related activities; non-hydrocarbon GDP covers everything else, from trade and finance to construction and government services. The overall rate is a weighted average of the two. Because the non-oil economy is by far the larger part of output, the overall rate tracks non-oil growth more closely, as 2023 shows: oil and gas activity shrank, yet the economy as a whole grew.

In 2025 the CBUAE describes broad growth on both sides. Hydrocarbon output rose following OPEC+ quota adjustments, and construction, financial and insurance activities, and wholesale and retail trade were the largest contributors to non-oil growth.

The economy in 2026 so far

Output grew in the first quarter of 2026 and shrank in the second, a year-on-year fall that followed three years of annual growth. Over the half year as a whole, the economy was slightly larger than in the same period of 2025. Each quarter is compared with the same quarter a year earlier, which removes the effect of seasonal patterns.

First quarter: growth of 3.0%

FCSC data released on 4 August 2026 show real GDP growing 3% year on year in the first quarter of 2026, to AED 485 billion at constant prices. The CBUAE’s September review, using FCSC data, puts the rate at 3.0% and gives the detail: non-hydrocarbon GDP grew 4.8%, led by financial and insurance activities, up 17.3%, and construction, up 8.1%. Hydrocarbon activity fell 3.5% because oil and gas production was temporarily reduced in March.

Second quarter: a 2.1% fall

In the second quarter, real GDP was smaller than a year earlier, and the non-oil economy contracted as well.

UAE real GDP, second quarter of 2026

AED 476.9 billion; -2.1% (non-oil -1.1%)

FCSC reported on 9 October 2026 that UAE real GDP in the second quarter of 2026 was AED 476.9 billion, 2.1% lower than in the second quarter of 2025, and that non-oil activities contracted by 1.1% as tourism, transport and trade were affected by regional developments and travel disruptions.

A rise in one quarter and a fall in the next can still leave the half year slightly up. The arithmetic below uses FCSC’s published totals and quarterly growth rates.

Worked example

How +3.0% and -2.1% add up to +0.4% for the half year

Our calculation from the published figures, in AED billion at constant prices and rounded to one decimal. The 2025 levels in steps 2 to 4 are derived here and are not published by FCSC.

1. First quarter of 2026: AED 961.9 billion for the half minus AED 476.9 billion for the second quarter = AED 485.0 billion, the same as the AED 485 billion FCSC reported for the quarter in August.
2. First quarter of 2025: AED 485.0 billion ÷ 1.030 = about AED 470.9 billion.
3. Second quarter of 2025: AED 476.9 billion ÷ 0.979 = about AED 487.1 billion.
4. First half of 2025: AED 470.9 billion + AED 487.1 billion = about AED 958.0 billion.
5. Change over the half: AED 961.9 billion ÷ AED 958.0 billion = 1.004, a rise of about 0.4%.

The two quarters together leave the first half of 2026 about 0.4% above the first half of 2025, matching FCSC’s figure.

What caused the slowdown

The CBUAE’s Financial Stability Report 2025 says the growth outlook for 2026 was undermined by the regional crisis, including GCC airspace disruptions and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which directly affected air transport, tourism and trade. FCSC’s release names the same channels for the non-oil fall in the second quarter: tourism, transport and trade, affected by regional developments and disruptions to travel.

Oil output fell at the same time. The report records UAE oil production 34.3% lower year on year in March 2026 and 30.4% lower in April. The September review adds that production averaged 2.0 million barrels a day from March to May, then reached a near-record 3.8 million in June and July; the oil and non-oil guide covers the oil side in detail.

So is the UAE economy going down? On the data published by 21 October 2026, one quarter of decline followed three years of annual growth, and the first half was still 0.4% up on a year earlier. FCSC’s latest release, of 9 October 2026, covers the period to June. The CBUAE’s report describes the economy as having strong fundamentals and fiscal buffers to absorb the shock; that is the Central Bank’s assessment, not a measured outcome.

Which sectors drive the economy

Trade, finance and insurance, construction, manufacturing and real estate are the largest non-oil activities, and finance and insurance recorded the highest growth rate among the major activities in the first half of 2026.

Structure of UAE real GDP, first half of 2026

Non-oil 79.2%; oil 20.8% (H1 2026)

In the first half of 2026, non-oil activities made up 79.2% of UAE real GDP and oil activities 20.8%; within non-oil GDP, trade accounted for 16.2%, financial and insurance activities 15.2%, construction 13.1%, manufacturing 11.8% and real estate 7.9%, and financial and insurance activities grew fastest, by 14.8%.

FCSC’s release gives shares for the five largest non-oil activities and growth rates for six activities, so some cells in the table are blank.

The shares in the table are percentages of non-oil GDP, not of the whole economy. The split between oil and non-oil activity, and how it has changed over time, is covered in how much of the economy is oil.

Abu Dhabi and Dubai

Abu Dhabi and Dubai publish their own GDP figures through their statistics offices, on their own schedules and methods. Their figures are not slices of FCSC’s total and cannot simply be added up to it: they can cover different periods, follow different methods and are revised at different times.

Abu Dhabi GDP

The Statistics Centre Abu Dhabi (SCAD) put Abu Dhabi’s real GDP at a record AED 1.2 trillion in 2024, 3.8% more than in 2023, on preliminary estimates. Non-oil GDP grew 6.2% to AED 644.3 billion, 54.7% of the total. SCAD’s release of 9 February 2026 shows GDP up 7.7% year on year in the third quarter of 2025, to AED 325.7 billion, with non-oil activities at 54% of GDP. Over the first nine months of 2025, GDP grew 5% and the non-oil economy 6.8%.

On 21 May 2026 SCAD announced a comprehensive revision and rebasing of Abu Dhabi’s GDP series, which moves the estimates to an updated base year. SCAD says the current published series stays the official reference until the revised estimates are released, so the figures above may change.

Dubai GDP

Dubai’s GDP reached AED 232 billion in the first quarter of 2026, 2.4% more than a year earlier, according to the Government of Dubai Media Office. Wholesale and retail trade was the largest sector at about 22% of GDP, and real estate activities contributed 11.2%. Health and social work grew fastest, by 17.5%, and construction grew 8.2%.

The Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment at Digital Dubai said in January 2026 that it was re-estimating the GDP time series. Since the beginning of 2026, the series has been revised from previously published estimates to reflect the latest economic survey results and administrative records, so quarterly levels published earlier on the old series should not be compared with the AED 232 billion figure.

Is the UAE economy growing? The forecasts

The CBUAE expects growth to stay positive in 2026, though far slower than in 2025, and to jump in 2027 as oil output rises. These are forecasts from September 2026, not results.

CBUAE real GDP growth forecasts

2026: 1.6%; 2027: 10.4%

The CBUAE projects UAE real GDP growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 10.4% in 2027, with non-hydrocarbon GDP growth of 1.3% in 2026 and 4.9% in 2027, and hydrocarbon activity growing 2.4% in 2026 and 26.8% in 2027 as oil output is projected to reach 5 million barrels a day.

The Central Bank’s forecast for 2026 has come down since the regional crisis began, while the forecast for 2027 has risen slightly:

The jump is driven mainly by oil and gas. The September review projects hydrocarbon activity to grow 26.8% in 2027 as oil output reaches 5 million barrels a day, against 4.9% for non-hydrocarbon GDP; for 2026 it projects 2.4% and 1.3%. The Financial Stability Report attributes the rebound in oil and gas to a low 2026 base and higher production after the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC and OPEC+, with a target capacity of about 5 million barrels a day by 2027. Forecasts change with each review, and the outlook depends on how the external environment develops, as the CBUAE itself notes.

How GDP is measured and published

FCSC publishes quarterly preliminary estimates and annual figures for the UAE, the emirate statistics offices publish their own, and every series is revised as fuller data arrive.

• FCSC publishes national GDP, first as preliminary estimates. Its figures for the first half and second quarter of 2026 are preliminary and based on the methods and time series currently in use. FCSC is running a Comprehensive GDP Revision Programme, which adds new data sources and brings free zones within statistical coverage, and the updated national series will be released once the results are approved in the first quarter of 2027.
• The CBUAE reuses FCSC’s figures in its Quarterly Economic Review and Financial Stability Report and adds its own forecasts, labelled as such.
• SCAD publishes GDP for Abu Dhabi, and its own revision and rebasing is under way.
• The Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment at Digital Dubai compiles Dubai’s GDP series, and the Government of Dubai Media Office announces the results; since the beginning of 2026 the series has been revised from earlier estimates.

Revisions can change the picture of a year, as 2024 shows. Comparing figures is safest when they come from the same release or the same table. This page is checked against each new FCSC release.

What GDP figures mean for businesses

GDP describes the economy as a whole and looks backwards: the most recent quarter is months old by the time it is published. For a business it is context for demand rather than a forecast of its own sales.

Sector figures are the more useful part. The first half of 2026 shows how differently activities moved: finance and insurance grew quickly while tourism, transport and trade were hit in the second quarter. A business’s own sector and emirate can move well away from the national average. Prices and borrowing costs matter too: UAE inflation shows how fast prices are rising, and UAE interest rates explains the CBUAE Base Rate. For the practical side of starting out, see how to start a business in the UAE. More on the economy is in the UAE economy guides.